注册 登录  
 加关注
   显示下一条  |  关闭
温馨提示!由于新浪微博认证机制调整,您的新浪微博帐号绑定已过期,请重新绑定!立即重新绑定新浪微博》  |  关闭

论老子

道,领导也。领导必需要不断呼唤,教导下属以及以身作则。下属的过和错皆因领导懒惰。

 
 
 

日志

 
 

Singapore economy 2014-2015: Second of Triple Whammy  

2014-11-01 15:50:23|  分类: Economics (Unto |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

  下载LOFTER 我的照片书  |

In the article, Singapore economy 2014-2015: First of Triple Whammy, the first whammy which is the Singapore property market had collapsed, beginning from 4th quarter 2013. This is the reason why I begin the titles of three back-to-back articles with the date period, 2014-2015.

The Second Whammy that is about to occur is the Singapore stock market and it must happen before mid-2015. Why?

Most of the retail stock investors think they are very smart (alecs). They think they had got hold of a specific winning formula and therefore, bravely dabble in the stock market. Their bravery put the Kamikaze pilots of the WWII to shame.

Why do I say so?

Here are two very, very important terms that all readers of stock market analysis or investment books must clearly understand. Yet, I supposed none of you understood what the two words, ‘Distribution’ and ‘Accumulation’ actually mean.

Distribution means, “The act of distributing or the condition of being distributed”.

Accumulation means “The act of gathering or amassing, as into a heap or pile”.

However, almost no one ever asked:

1.       Who distributes? Or, who accumulates?

2.       What is being distributed? Or, what is being accumulated?

It is the institutional investors who are making the distribution. They are the same party who accumulates.

These institutional investors distribute shares that were artificially being driven up by them (a pooling effort made concurrently by many large institutional investors). They are the same party who accumulates shares that had gone down way too much.

Singapore economy 2014-2015: Second of Triple Whammy - 行天之道 - 论老子

 To all investors, timing is the most crucial element of success.

. When will distribution end? Run before the distribution comes to an end. When will accumulation begin? Go in just before it happens.

There are a lot of smart alecs who think they can time the market and the smarter alecs think they can time it for an individual share that they found is worth dumping their money in and cashing out; in the process make a handsome profit.  The smartest of all these smart alecs use a tool called, Homilychart. Its website is http://www.homilychart.com/

The founder of this tool pays a hefty sum of subscription fees to Bloomberg to obtain a specific set of data. What data do you think he pays for?

Answer: The transaction data that helps him to track the buying and selling of shares by all the institutional investors.

When the institutional investors are selling, it is called distribution. When the institutional investors are buying, it is called, accumulation.

I believe in the accuracy of the Homilychart. It is dead accurate, timing-wise. However, this tool does not explain the intrinsic factor (which is highly fluidic in nature) that could be the possible root cause for an about turn of the stock market, for any period of time. It requires a big picture approach that this tool is not able to track simply because a picture is a picture and certainly, a big picture not a piece of data that Homilychart can buy anywhere, including, Bloomberg.

What is the big picture?

Let me show you a few big pictures.

A) China: SSE stock market

Singapore economy 2014-2015: Second of Triple Whammy - 行天之道 - 论老子

 The SSE composite index that track the shares traded in the shanghai Stock Exchange peaked in 3rd quarter 2007 at around 6000. Today, it is hovering at slightly above 2000.

Will the stock markets in China (Shanghai and Shenzhen) suffer a severe shock in the coming collapse in the world stock markets which often happens like the falling of dominoes? No! It is going to be extremely mild because its current level is at about one-third of its peak, meaning it is not likely to suffer financial contagion [1] which happens at both the international level and the domestic level. This time, China is definitely immune because there is no sign telling there is significant amount of DISTRIBUTION activity occurring since year 2011. Important note 1: Homilychart is a piece of Chinese software that begins its life in China shortly before the collapse of the SSE in year 2007. After the July 2008 collapse of the world stock markets, it is forced to migrate outside China.

B) USA: S&P 500

Singapore economy 2014-2015: Second of Triple Whammy - 行天之道 - 论老子

 Last Friday's (Oct 31, 2014) gains were broad, with the benchmark S&P 500 index posting 126 new 52-week highs and the Nasdaq recording 229 new highs. The Nasdaq finished at its highest since March 2000 (4630.74). Important note 2: Going by the Nasdaq indicators, the USA stock market has beaten its 2007-2008 peak. Important note 3: The red box that glows in pink at the top right hand corner is not drawn for fun. It points to a cold hard fact, lots of heavy distribution activities.

Should it collapse, it is going to be as bad, if not worse that the 2008 financial meltdown.

C) Singapore: STI Index

Singapore economy 2014-2015: Second of Triple Whammy - 行天之道 - 论老子

 The Singapore stock market is being heavily manipulated by the Singapore government by means of its huge ownership in most of the super-heavy component stock broadly named, GLC or Government-linked Corporations. I preferred to use the term, GOC or Government-owned Corporations.

Here are a few interesting questions?

1) Was there an amount of heavy amount of distribution activities shortly before the financial meltdown that begins in July 2008?

My answer is definitely, yes.

2) Was there a significant volume of accumulation activities around year 2009?

My answer is definitely, no. Not significant because the Singapore government quickly jacked up the STI Index in order to boost up its portfolio in both the GIC and Temasek Sovereign funds.

3) Was there a heavy amount of distribution activities occurring right now, meaning, from early 2014 to 31st Oct 2014?

This is my best guess. Not much because the general public (retail investors) has been suffering from spending fatigue since April 2013. This was the time where the local banks started to clamp down on rampant rolling of credit debts.

Now, this is the more interesting question.

Will the Singapore stock market suffer financial contagion should the USA stock market meltdown once again, roughly at around the second quarter of 2015?         

Going by what had happened in the financial meltdown that occurred in July 2008 to Feb 2009, this time round, the smart alecs in the Singapore Finance Department and the two sovereign funds, namely, GIC and Temasek believe they can handle the situation very well, if not better than the short dive lasting a short year, as see in the above chart. Important note 4: By the way, after reading this blog article, they are rudely awakened and must act NOW.       

Fellow Singaporeans,

When the institutional investors who run GIC and Temasek sovereign funds are rudely awakened, indeed shocked by this write-up, YOU BETTER RUN, QUIT FROM THE STOCK MARKET NOW!   

The best stock market analytical tool, the Homilychart that you might be subscribing to, DEFINITELY does not tell you the underlying intrinsic factor which is this bunch of GIC and Temasek institutional investors FEAR!

 

In summary, economics is a complicated subject. Henceforth, the author chose to break it down into five separate articles, each focusing on a single topic. Please read these articles in the following sequence.

Singapore economy 2014-2015: First of Triple Whammy

Singapore economy 2014-2015: Second of Triple Whammy

Singapore economy 2014-2015: Third of Triple Whammy (Prelude)

Singapore economy 2014-2015: Third of Triple Whammy - Part 1

Singapore economy 2014-2015: Third of Triple Whammy - Part 2


     [1] Financial contagion refers to a scenario in which small shocks, which initially affect only a few financial institutions or a particular region of an economy, spread to the rest of financial sectors and other countries whose economies were previously healthy, in a manner similar to the transmission of a medical disease. Financial contagion happens at both the international level and the domestic level.

 

  评论这张
 
阅读(234)| 评论(0)
推荐

历史上的今天

在LOFTER的更多文章

评论

<#--最新日志,群博日志--> <#--推荐日志--> <#--引用记录--> <#--博主推荐--> <#--随机阅读--> <#--首页推荐--> <#--历史上的今天--> <#--被推荐日志--> <#--上一篇,下一篇--> <#-- 热度 --> <#-- 网易新闻广告 --> <#--右边模块结构--> <#--评论模块结构--> <#--引用模块结构--> <#--博主发起的投票-->
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

页脚

网易公司版权所有 ©1997-2017